科学｜南海トラフ地震の発生確率が改訂 / Science | Revised Probability of Nankai Trough Earthquake Occurrence

Summary

The government’s Earthquake Research Committee announced that it has revised the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough from “about 80%” to “between approximately 60% and 90% or more.”

This revision is based on a recalculation of errors in earthquake data from the Edo period, indicating that there is a possibility of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring within the next 30 years. The importance of preparedness for earthquakes is being reaffirmed.

Dialogue

This dialogue is fictional and based on the article.

Log: The probability of an Nankai Trough earthquake has been revised. It used to be around 80 percent, but now it’s reported to be over 60 to 90 percent.
Chako: Wow, that’s so high! Why has it changed so much?
Log: They recalculated the errors in the data from the Edo period. So, it means the probability is now more accurate.
Navi: The recalculation of earthquake probabilities is done by reviewing past data. This allows for more reliable information to be provided.
Chako: I see, that makes sense. It’s definitely important to be prepared for earthquakes!

Admin’s Note

The recent revision of the probability of an Nankai Trough earthquake is very important news for us. Particularly, the likelihood of it occurring within the next 30 years is high, making this a good opportunity to reassess our earthquake preparedness. Like Chako, recognizing the importance of being prepared in light of this information can serve as a catalyst to enhance disaster awareness in our communities and households. It is essential for many people to be conscious of preparedness for natural disasters in order to mitigate potential damage.